Get your popcorn and place your bets, folks, because 2016 election speculation is already ramping up! A new poll favors Hillary Clinton for victory in Iowa come voting day against two likely GOP opponents: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Mrs. Clinton would win 46-42 percent and 48-37 percent respectively and while she would have a clear victory against the more traditional Rubio, the more libertarian Paul was closer and actually lead among Independents 44 to 38 percent.

This breakdown of Independents in Iowa is important because the voter population there is roughly divided into thirds for Republicans, Democrats and Independents, making it an excellent example of a battleground state during the general election. Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said that Mrs. Clinton “runs much better among independent voters, although Sen. Rand Paul runs better among that key group than [possible] Democrat candidates.” This means that if the former Secretary of State were to run, she may have difficulty winning the battleground states in the general election. On the other hand, the next Paul nominee stands to win some key states if he can maintain his message.

Curiously, Governor Chris Christie (NJ) was not included in this latest poll. Perhaps the folks at Quinnipiac think he’s going to need more than lap-band surgery to “look presidential.” But, where the poll seemed to be weighing different parts of the GOP against Mrs. Clinton in a bid to examine her chances with independents, its omission of the New Jersey governor may prove to be an oversight. While Libertarians and apathetic voters may support Senator Rand Paul, Gov. Christie is one of the few moderate Republicans that represents the center-right and could win Independent votes simply with his show of unrelenting honesty.